NEWSLETTER

Welcome to EDI's newsletter archive!

If you are interested in subscribing to the EDI newsletter, please sign-up here:

Is the Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Bubble bursting?

When you consider all of the recent reports and wide ranging speculation about lower than expected sales of vanguard vehicles such as the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf and combine that with the financial challenges that many of the related suppliers for things like batteries and motors are having - it's easy to believe that this may be the beginning of a "bubble burst" in the new electric vehicle economy.

Add to that the difficult recent economic reports coming out of the industry incumbents and startups such as A123, Ener1, Azure Dynamics, Enova, Bright Automotive and many others, it would seem like things are headed in the wrong direction for electrified vehicles.

In actuality, the market for these types of vehicles is expanding and consumer take up has been accelerating. A recent article in Automotive News reported that first quarter 2012 sales for HEV, PHEV, and EVs were actually up 44% over the same period a year earlier. Additionally, the market share for these types of vehicles compared to conventional vehicles was up by 50% from 2.2% to about 3.3%.

Granted, the majority of these vehicles are hybrid electrics, but the point is that consumers are quickly accepting the principles of using electricity to reduce fuel consumption. They're also enjoying the sensation of quietly and quickly launching their vehicles with the electric motors before starting to burn fuel.

Once consumers become accustomed to electricity in their hybrid vehicles, it won't be long before they start wanting to drive a little further and a little faster with electricity and they'll be looking for PHEV and EV alternatives.

Yes, the market is going through fits and starts which most new markets do - but the progress is real and there are still an overwhelming number of market forces about to kick in which are going to give the market a major boost. These include things like; both the U.S. and China national governments mandating that a large portion of government vehicle fleets are alternative energy types, rising fuel costs (France hit $9.10/gallon a few weeks ago), recent fuel shortages in the U.K. at the pump, $5 fuel in California already, and the reality that most OEMs don't expect to be able to keep pace with the new CAFÉ standards without implementing some form of hybridization.

In many ways, we're still at the very beginning of the new electric vehicle era, but the progress is undeniable, and the ongoing consumer adoption and coming market forces will make this an exciting industry to be part of.

Joerg Ferchau, CEO
Efficient Drivetrains Inc.

It's Electrification Evolution, Not Revolution! …Or Is It?

We've talked about the average driver driving 15,000 miles per year who can displace 80%-to-90% of the gasoline s/he would normally use with nothing more than 110 volts to charge a PHEV at 1kW to 2kW. Well, it's within our grasp today to move one step closer to gasoline displacement and total electrification of the transportation sector.

But before we talk about this continuing evolution, I want to reiterate that the mission to electrify is not about fuel economy. Rather, it's about displacement of oil and gasoline, foreign and domestic…for national security reasons, for environmental reasons, and for economic reasons.

When I started designing electric vehicles over 30 years ago, I realized that while electric-only vehicles were the ultimate goal, we needed a transitional vehicle, mainly due to consumer range anxiety and the nascent battery market. We needed dual-energy hybrid vehicles that could conveniently switch to either batteries or liquid fuel, as needed. And don't reinvent the system, but rely instead on available fuelling and electric infrastructures. Over time, alternative energy sources would appear, but for now PHEVs could provide immediate displacement relief.

Finally, electricity for Level 1 outlets can also come from Home and Light Industrial Solar and Wind Generators. Solar, for example, would be used where cars are parked on the job, at shopping malls, commuter rail and bus stations, and at home.

The current solar efficiency is about 1 kW / 200 square feet. Google is one company that has successfully demonstrated this concept, and when cars aren't using the solar-generated energy, it offsets the company's internal energy needs.

The cost of Solar and Wind energy is below the current cost of gasoline by more than a factor of four – below $1 per equivalent gallon of gasoline. So, PHEVs powered by these means will be powered at one-fourth the current fuel cost, and with zero emissions.

The other 10%-to-20% of needed energy can come from liquid fuels. If that's gasoline, then we are paying less than one-fourth the conventional cost of fuel. If it's Biofuels, then green house gas emissions could be zero!

The key is to show that the pay back period for using Solar-, Wind-, and Biofuel-derived energy is less than two years. And as the price of oil and gasoline rises, this will come closer to reality.

Professor Andy Frank, CTO
Efficient Drivetrains Inc.

We'd appreciate any feedback on the newsletter or particular stories. If you would like to comment or inquire about an article please email us at: newsletter@efficientdrivetrains.com Thanks!